A United Ireland Plebiscite Should Not Transform Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Commentators Caution

Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."